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Over the weekend, I covered the daily charts on the Economic Modern Family, featuring the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Retail (XRT). Both are lagging the benchmark and in the middle of their January trend calendar ranges.
As Semiconductors, NASDAQ, the Dow, and S&P 500 continue to post new all-time highs and clear the January trend highs, I keep looking for evidence that the rest of the Family will either soon follow or anchor. Hence, I turn to the weekly charts. Only Semiconductors (SMH) and Transportation (IYT) are in weekly bullish phases (when the blue 50-WMA is above the green 200-DMA along with price). While SMH is off to new highs, IYT has a distance to go even in its bullish phase.
What about the rest of the Family? The good news is that none are in bearish phases. Regional Banks (KRE) and Biotechnology (IBB) are into resistance and in recovery phases as both are priced below the 200-WMA. Plus, the 50-WMA is below, rather than above, the 200-WMA. As KRE and IBB are in the weakest weekly phases, both areas are vulnerable to a sell-off.
Retail (XRT) sits right on the 200-WMA and is in a weekly accumulation phase. I believe that the Retail sector is the key to what happens next, given:
- The widening ratio between the price of growth and family sectors
- Earnings of big tech
- Fed meeting end of the month and interest rate policy
- Inflation numbers, particularly the price of food
The consumer sector has been in the game, but now shows some signs of fatigue. XRT will tell us what comes next.
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Mish in the Media
Nicole Petallides and Mish dig deep into trends and stocks to watch for next big moves, as we are in full January trend mode on this video from Schwab Network.
On the Monday, January 22 episode of Your Daily Five from StockCharts TV, Mish sees the potential for consumers to spend more money, from self-help to dieting, to makeup to skincare to fashion — pointing out several relevant stocks and how to trade them.
Mish looks at a selection of popular instruments in this video from CMC Markets, outlining their possible directions of travel.
Mish joins Jason Perz on the Against All Odds playlist, where she covers it all talking the mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, and macro.
Mish’s Market Minute on StockCharts TV returns, all new! Mish and Geoff Bysshe share how the powerful “Calendar Range” StockChartsACP plugin tells you who and what to believe, when to act, and what to trade. The new year is a big “reset” emotionally, and January sets the tone for the next six months AND the year. Every month is “like an inning in baseball,” financial reports focus on quarters, but analysts think in terms of the first half and second half of the year. How can you harness this knowledge to your benefit? Watch to find out!
Mish presents a three part market outlook in these videos from CMC Markets. In the first, Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes. Then, she examines whether the S&P 500 can keep rallying, and finally, she investigates where 2024 could be the year of the heavy metals.
Mish offers her thoughts on a number of commodities ahead of the US CPI data announcement in this appearance on CMC Markets.
In this video from CMC Markets, Mish continues with her analysis on gold, oil and gas, this time adding the dollar/yen currency pair and her outlook on the dollar longer term.
Coming Up:
January 22: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV & Schwab Network
January 24: Yahoo! Finance
January 25: Live Coaching
February 2: Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY): 480 now the pivotal zone.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold.
- Dow (DIA): 375 support.
- Nasdaq (QQQ): 408-409 support.
- Regional Banks (KRE): Back over 50, which needs to hold.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 184 support.
- Transportation (IYT): 254 support with 262 resistance.
- Biotechnology (IBB): 135 pivotal.
- Retail (XRT): Held support at 65 but still needs to get back over 70.00.
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education
